Trust Center
How accurate the platform's predictions are, how much promised decision value was actually realized, and the verified savings behind it — all auditable.
Closed-Loop Bayesian Weibull (β, η) & Epistemic Brier Skill Recalibrator
Updates per-asset-class Weibull priors using verified PredictionAccuracy outcomes and 48-hour sensor-confirmed SavingsLedgerEntry records.
Prediction calibration scoreboard
Calibration curve
Claimed confidence against verified outcomes. A well-calibrated model tracks the diagonal — above it is underconfident, below it is overconfident. Scored on verified outcomes only (correct = 1, partial = 0.5, incorrect = 0).
Not enough verified outcomes to plot calibration yet.
Forecast dates awaiting verification
- BEN CV-02 Overland Drive Motors (3 × 750 kW)Oct 27, 2026 · in 0 d · 50%
- BEN CV-01 Drive Motor & GearboxOct 27, 2026 · in 0 d · 50%
- BEN Raw Water Pump Station RW-1Oct 27, 2026 · in 0 d · 50%
- BEN CHPP Tailings Pump TP-1Oct 27, 2026 · in 0 d · 50%
- BEN Secondary Sizer SZ-201Jun 22, 2027 · in 238 d · 50%
- BEN CHPP Spirals CircuitAug 31, 2027 · in 308 d · 50%
Accuracy by model version
Whether each released version actually improved on the last, on verified outcomes.
| Version | Verified | Claimed | Observed | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v2.0-multiasset | 0 of 40 | — | — | — |
Dated failure forecasts
Forecasts whose predicted date has passed must be verified by the Reliability Engineer before they can count toward calibration.
0
Past date, unverified
40
Date still ahead
0
Verified
Prediction ledger
Every forecast, its claimed confidence, the verified outcome and who verified it.
| Asset | Prediction | Predicted date | Confidence | Outcome | Verified by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEN CHPP DMC Module 2 Cyclone | 30% by 2028-03-10Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Mar 10, 2028in 500 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP DMC Module 1 Cyclone | 45% by 2027-11-23Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Nov 23, 2027in 392 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Desliming Screen DS-2 | 45% by 2027-10-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 21, 2027in 359 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Desliming Screen DS-1 | 30% by 2028-01-05Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jan 5, 2028in 435 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Reclaim Feeder RF-402 | 30% by 2028-06-04Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 4, 2028in 586 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Reclaim Feeder RF-401 | 30% by 2028-06-23Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 23, 2028in 605 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Product Stacker ST-301 | 30% by 2028-06-04Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 4, 2028in 586 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CV-04 Reclaim to Loadout Drive | 45% by 2028-05-26Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | May 26, 2028in 577 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CV-03 Stacker Feed Drive | 30% by 2027-10-12Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 12, 2027in 350 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CV-02 Overland Drive Motors (3 × 750 kW) | 50% by 2026-10-27Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 27, 2026in 0 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Secondary Sizer SZ-201 | 55% by 2027-06-22Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 22, 2027in 238 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN ROM Bin 1 & Apron Feeder AF-101 | 30% by 2028-02-17Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Feb 17, 2028in 478 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN MIA Workshop Overhead Crane 50 t | 30% by 2029-06-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 21, 2029in 968 d | 60% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Fire Suppression System | 12% by 2032-02-29Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Feb 29, 2032in 1951 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Train Loadout Weigh-Bin Load Cells | 0% by 2036-08-10Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Aug 10, 2036in 3575 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Rail Loop Turnout TO-1 | 30% by 2028-06-23Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 23, 2028in 605 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Rail Loop Track | 0% by 2039-07-08Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jul 8, 2039in 4637 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Motor Control Centre MCC-1 | 30% by 2028-01-27Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jan 27, 2028in 457 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CV-01 Drive Motor & Gearbox | 50% by 2026-10-27Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 27, 2026in 0 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN ROM Rock Breaker RB-101 | 0% by 2035-09-10Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Sep 10, 2035in 3240 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Dragline Trailing-Cable Substation DS-01 | 0% by 2047-02-06Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Feb 6, 2047in 7407 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN 66/11 kV Main Substation Transformer T1 | 0% by 2043-02-06Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Feb 6, 2043in 5946 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Mine Water Dam MWD-1 | 0% by 2090-10-26Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 26, 2090in 23375 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Raw Water Pump Station RW-1 | 36% by 2026-10-27Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 27, 2026in 0 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Pit Dewatering Pump PD-1 | 0% by 2032-09-12Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Sep 12, 2032in 2147 d | 55% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Plant Air Compressor C-1 | 16.5% by 2031-09-29Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Sep 29, 2031in 1798 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Tailings Pump TP-1 | 36% by 2026-10-27Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 27, 2026in 0 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Thickener TH-1 | 30% by 2027-09-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Sep 21, 2027in 329 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Product Centrifuge CF-1 | 45% by 2028-11-08Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Nov 8, 2028in 743 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Reflux Classifier RC-1 | 15% by 2033-02-26Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Feb 26, 2033in 2314 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Spirals Circuit | 30% by 2027-08-31Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Aug 31, 2027in 308 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP DM Cyclone Pump 2 | 36% by 2028-01-28Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jan 28, 2028in 458 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Magnetic Separator MS-1 | 30% by 2028-01-05Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jan 5, 2028in 435 d | 50% | pending | — |
| BEN Overland Product Conveyor | 0% by 2045-10-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 21, 2045in 6934 d | 60% | pending | — |
| BEN Train Loadout Bin & Chute | 0% by 2045-10-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 21, 2045in 6934 d | 60% | pending | — |
| BEN Primary Sizer | 0% by 2045-10-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 21, 2045in 6934 d | 65% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Feed Conveyor | 0% by 2045-10-21Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Oct 21, 2045in 6934 d | 70% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Product Screen | 33.5% by 2039-06-09Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Jun 9, 2039in 4608 d | 65% | pending | — |
| BEN Dragline (primary overburden) | 10% by 2043-11-28Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | Nov 28, 2043in 6241 d | 85% | pending | — |
| BEN CHPP Dense Medium Cyclone Pump | 48% by 2033-05-31Failure probability · v2.0-multiasset | May 31, 2033in 2408 d | 70% | pending | — |
Decision value realization
No decisions verified against outcomes yet.
Verified avoided-failure value
A$0
verified (0 interventions)
A$0
projected pipeline (0)
No savings verified yet — verified entries appear here with evidence.
Calibration by accountable role
No verified decisions with both expected and actual value yet. Calibration can only be scored once outcomes are verified.
Realisation = Σ actual ÷ Σ expected across verified decisions. Approver names are as recorded at approval and are not authenticated sign-offs.